Syria in Transition

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Overview

In December 2024, after more than a decade of periodic civil war in Syria, rebel forces took the capital of Damascus and toppled the government of Bashar al-Assad with remarkable swiftness and ease.  Join Active Minds as we seek to understand Syria's complex history and how a five-decade long Assad dictatorship could come crashing down in the course of a few days and what it means for the future of an already unstable Middle East.

Key Lecture Points

  • Assad Regime. Beginning in 1970 under Hafez al-Assad and, after his death in 2000, his son Bashar, the nation of Syria was dominated by a brutal regime for over five decades. The Syrian Civil War which began in 2011 was a complex multi-party conflict that resulted in the deaths of over 600,000 and the displacement of nearly 60% of the population.
  • Swift Defeat. The war came to a swift and surprising conclusion in December 2024 when a Sunni Islamist organization called Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept southward from its stronghold in the north and, with little resistance from Assad’s forces, took the capital of Damascus, leading to flight of Assad and the end of the regime.
  • Site for of Extremism. Islam has been the dominant religion in Syria since the Arab conquest in 636. Most Syrians are Sunni Muslims, although President Assad is Alawite—a sect of Shia Islam. The civil war in Syria allowed the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) to establish itself in the country as well as Al Qaeda affiliate al Nusra Front. After several years of violence, ISIS lost significant power and territory, but its ideology still remains potent and influential.
  • International conflict. The Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons and the emergence of ISIS in Syria led many other countries to become involved in the war. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, and Russia as well as the US and its allies were involved in the war at various levels, often with different or opposing goals.
  • Refugee crisis.  After over 14 years of conflict, Syria had become the world’s largest refugee crisis. Since 2011, more than 14 million Syrians have been forced to flee their homes in search of safety. More than 7.2 million Syrians remain internally displaced in their own country where 70 percent of the population is in need of humanitarian assistance and 90 percent live below the poverty line. Approximately 5.5 million Syrian refugees live in the five countries neighboring Syria—Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt. Germany is the largest non-neighboring host country with more than 850,000 Syrian refugees.

Discussion Questions

  • What explains the swiftness with which the Assad regime was toppled in 2024?
  • Given the history of HTS and its former relationship with al Qaeda, do you think it will be able to create a stable government as it cleans up the ashes of fifty plus years of the Assad regime and nearly 15 years of civil war in Syria?
  • Have you ever been to Syria? The Middle East? What were your impressions?

More to Explore

Books for Further Reading

  • Abouzeid, Rania. No Turning Back: Life, Loss and Hope in Wartime Syria. W. W. Norton, 2018. 400 pages. The stories of four young people seeking safety and freedom tell the broader tale of the Syrian Civil War.
  • Brooke, Allen. The Other Side of the Mirror: An American Travels Through Syria. Paul Dry Books, 2011. 259 pages. Introduction to contemporary Syria.
  • Lesch, David W. Syria: The Fall of the House of Assad, Yale University Press, 2012. 384 pages. Chronicles the regime of Bashar Assad, the causes of the Syrian uprising and Assad’s tactics to remain in power.
  • Van Dam, Nikolaos. Destroying a Nation: The Civil War in Syria. I. B. Tauris, 2017. 336 pages. Explains the recent history of Syria, including disenchantment with Assad, the outbreak of violence and the way the war has restructured Syrian society.